Topline
Online betting odds favor Democratic candidates in most of Tuesday’s highest-profile races, including the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, as well as the mayoral race in New York City, despite some tightening poll numbers in the New Jersey governor’s race.
Democratic candidates are still favored to win key elections in New Jersey, Virginia and New York City.
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Key Facts
Predictive markets gave Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic candidate in the New York City mayoral race, a commanding lead over Republican Curtis Sliwa and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an independent.
Polymarket gave Mamdani a 91.6% chance of winning, compared to a 90% chance on Kalshi—a significant lead over his opponents that failed to diminish much even after Mayor Eric Adams dropped out of the race in September and Cuomo received a last-minute endorsement from billionaire Elon Musk.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi gave Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate in New Jersey an 84% chance of winning.
Sherill leads her Republican opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, by single-digits in most polls, putting the Republican in striking distance to flip the governor’s seat in a state Democrats previously viewed as safe.
Polymarket and Kalshi odds paint Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic candidate in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, as almost certain to beat Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, with 98% and 97% odds, respectively.
Polling suggests Spanberger maintains a significant lead over Earle-Sears, despite backlash against Democratic attorney general candidate Jay Jones’ past comments about shooting the former Republican state speaker of the house.
Contra
Jones’ odds in the Virginia AG race have tumbled amid the controversy. Kalshi at the start of October put Jones’ odds of winning at nearly 88%, but his chances were at 41% on Tuesday, making him the underdog against Republican Jason Miyares. Polymarket also shows Jones as the underdog, with 41% odds.
Big Number
$485 million. That’s how much money gamblers have bet on the New York City mayoral race on Polymarket and Kalshi, two of the largest predictive markets, as of Tuesday morning. That sum includes $397 million in bets on Polymarket, as well as $88 million in bets placed on Kalshi. The New York City mayoral race became one of the most closely watched this year after Mamdani, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America and state assemblyman representing parts of Queens, won an unexpected Democratic primary victory in June over Cuomo, the former state governor who resigned after a sexual harassment scandal. Mamdani’s win has sparked dire warnings from some of New York’s billionaires, who have since donated significant amounts to political action committees supporting Cuomo. However, these warnings have seemingly failed to move the needle with voters, and a majority are still backing Mamdani, according to recent polling.
Key Background
President Donald Trump boasts a fairly miserable approval rating in most reliable polls, but the Democratic Party’s approval rating has also flailed in the months since he took office in January. Only 28% of respondents in an NBC News poll released Sunday had a positive view of the Democratic Party. However, 50% of respondents to the same poll said they would prefer Democratic control of Congress, compared to only 42% wh