Throughout the PGA Tour season, I use statistical modeling to see how each golfer should fit that week’s course by parsing strokes gained data at a granular level before placing bets on outright winners. We’ll use this same data to identify the best DFS plays and fades, finding the guys who score tons of points that very few other players may decide to roster.
Along the way we’ll let you know when we find some value among prop bets. I’ll be primarily using data and the tools from RickRunGood.com, PGA Tour and Shotlink for this column.
It would be very easy to rant (I still might?) after our five outright picks went a combined 96-under par (nine six, you read that correctly) and not a single one finished in the Top 10.
I tried to warn you that The American Express is nearly impossible to model and that certainly rang true last weekend. Nick Dunlap’s victory marked the third straight week that a golfer who opened the tournament with odds longer than 200-1 won outright.
No one said it was going to be easy, but we will keep grinding.
Before we jump into the analysis, a reminder: THE TOURNAMENT STARTS ON WEDNESDAY THIS WEEK.
Do not forget to put your bets and lineups in early.
All odds and pricing via DraftKings Sportsbook
(AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
Fortunately this week we head to the familiar confines of Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California, a staple on the PGA Tour since 1968.
Again we face the challenge of multiple courses in play, with the South Course being the significantly more difficult test of the two.
Torrey Pines has been the site of two U.S. Opens, and while it won’t be playing that difficult this weekend, the characteristics that make it an incredibly challenging test of golf still remain. We’ll have decades of data to bore this out, too.
As a fun aside, we get the first week of the year where we can play a drinking game every time the broadcast booth mentions the Kikuyu rough. Spoiler: everyone who plays this game dies.
Perhaps I’m a bit old school in that I love how difficult Torrey Pines is while presenting basically zero hazards. If you’ve ever played Torrey South, just meandered by the property or attended a PGA Tour event there, the first thing you’ll notice is that it is massive. Well, maybe you notice the incredible views first unless you’re a golf architecture nerd like me.
The Billy Bell designed South Course measures out at over 7,700 yards and it plays even longer than that. We’ll be talking mostly about this course as 54 of the 72 holes this weekend will take place there. It features extremely grabby Kikuyu (drink!) rough that even in non-US Open conditions present a challenge not only around the greens, but for missed fairways.
The notorious marine layer means the ball doesn’t travel as far, and historic rainfall in the San Diego area over the past several days should minimize rollout. This is a course where hitting it a mile has always been a massive advantage, and that should be amplified this week. Not only do longer hitters benefit off the tee here, they also benefit on errant drives as more clubhead speed allows the faster golfers to generate more, albeit still not much, spin out of that notorious rough.
Torrey will never be mistaken for a putting contest, but sneaky tough greens mean that defensive putters and those who avoid three-putts will have an advantage. Similar to last week, when going low at La Quinta Country Club was a prerequisite for winning the tournament, doing as much damage as possible on the one round each golfer will get on the much easier North Course will be pivotal. The birdie opportunities will be much more scarce over the remaining 54 holes.
The key stats I’m looking at this week are:
- Total Driving
- Driving Distance
- Clubhead Speed
- Strokes Gained: Approach (175+ Yards, 200+ Yards)
- 3-Putt Avoidance/Approach Putting
- Par 5 Scoring
- Going for the Green %
- SG: Hard Courses
- SG: Long Courses
- Course History
Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
Max Homa 1 Unit (+1200)
Leading it off for outright bets this week we have the defending champion. Real original, Guru! Needless to say he’s fared well here, and Homa seems to have a penchant for California golf in general. Outside of the win at last year’s iteration of this tournament, he’s also finished inside the Top 20 in two of his last three starts at Torrey prior to the win. He’s won at Riviera, which also famously features the aforementioned Kikuyu. Two of his other PGA Tour wins have come at Quail Hollow, another long and difficult course that plays at over 7,500 yards. He is not the longest player in the field but he’s got plenty of distance to keep up with the beast that is the South Course this week. A deeper dive into the numbers shows why he’s had success at these types of events. He ranks inside the Top 20 in the field this week in: Strokes Gained: Approach, Historical Strokes Gained at Torrey Pines, Total Driving, Approach Putting (key for avoiding pesky three-putts) and Strokes Gained at Long Courses. That’s a great recipe for success and I don’t mind paying up at his short odds this week one bit.
Ludvig Aberg 1U (+2000)
It’s hard to imagine a course that fits Aberg’s game (and many do) better than Torrey Pines. You’ll likely notice a recurring theme in this column which is that I love me some Ludvig Aberg, who ranked first in Total Driving in the 2022-2023 season and it wasn’t particularly close. He was the only player on Tour to be ranked inside the Top 10 in Distance (sixth, at 317.1 Yards, just 0.8 yards shorter than notorious bomber Cameron Champ) and inside the Top 30 in accuracy (27th, at 65.47%, one spot ahead of Brian Stuard, whom he bested by 43 yards in distance on average). Turns out hitting it farther than nearly anyone you play with and also putting it in the fairway more often than them is good. Who would’ve thought? When you dive deeper into the numbers, his appeal becomes even more obvious. Forget the driver for a second. Aberg ranks first in the field in Approach from the 175-225 yard range. He also ranks inside the Top 20 in the field in Strokes Gained on both hard courses and long courses. There probably isn’t a number at which I wouldn’t have bet him this week.
Tony Finau 1U (+2200)
Back to the well we go with Finau, who despite never winning this event boasts some of the best course history in the field with three Top 10s in his last four appearances (to be fair the fourth was a MC). He ranks third in the field in historical Strokes Gained at Torrey South as well as first in the field over his last 100 rounds played on Long Courses. Additionally, he ranks sixth in Approach Putting, which confirms the eye test. I see him as a more defensive putter than an aggressive putter, though that typically seems to play wel