Russell Wilson is under contract with the Denver Broncos through 2028. But he’s not expected to be playing for them in 2024.
The Broncos benched Wilson prior to their Week 17 showdown with the Los Angeles Chargers. This was, professionally, a matter of performance. Head coach Sean Payton chalked the move up to maximizing his team’s slim playoff chances.
But Denver’s replacement is journeyman backup Jarrett Stidham, who has decidedly been lesser than Wilson in his NFL career. Sitting Wilson helps ensure he won’t get hurt ahead of the start of the 2024 league year — a March date in which his $37 million 2025 salary would be guaranteed if he’s on the Broncos’ roster.
Thus, it’s been made clear to the world that Denver’s done with the quarterback for whom it traded three players, two first round picks and two second round picks less than two years ago. Wilson was reportedly told months ago he’d be released next spring, accelerating $85 million in dead salary cap space onto the Broncos’ tab in 2024 and 2025 (assuming he’s designated a post-June 1 release) just to be rid of a Super Bowl-winning quarterback. That’s going to leave a vacuum for a team that will be, once again, in search of someone to lead it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
There are a few avenues Denver can go down in order to replace Wilson. None of them are likely to produce someone better, at least in 2024. But that wasn’t the intention of cutting the former perennial Pro Bowler; 2024 was always going to be a gap year until 2025 thanks to the massive guarantees in Wilson’s contract and how they’ll dictate the team’s future even when he’s not there.
So here’s how Sean Payton can line up his chess pieces with his eye on the future going forward.
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Without Wilson, the only quarterback under contract for 2024 is Jarrett Stidham. Stidham is a viable backup. He is also 0-2 as a starter with a 73.5 career passer rating. Brock Osweiler’s rating as a Bronco, for comparison, was an 81.0.
He’s not a viable longterm starter, even if that term is only a single season. Fortunately for Denver, there are several veterans who could be. The 2024 free agent class is slated to include:
- Kirk Cousins
- Ryan Tannehill
- Gardner Minshew
- Baker Mayfield
- Jameis Winston
- Tyrod Taylor
- Jacoby Brissett, and more.
Unfortunately for Denver, affording a veteran QB is a different story. Wilson’s contract will accelerate as estimated $55 million in dead money (out of a total $85-plus million) onto the team’s 2024 salary sheet, per Over the Cap’s Jason Fitzgerald. That would be an extra $20 million on his current $35.4 million cap hit for next year. That’s rough — and this is a team that’s already slated to be $18 million over the cap to begin with.
The Broncos will have to shed salary before bringing new faces in. That’s going to take them out of the market for some of the top players out there. But maybe someone like Tannehill would take a one year, $5 million deal in hopes of reviving his career in a new locale. Or maybe all Denver can afford will be Joshua Dobbs.
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2024 has a handful of high level quarterback prospects who’ll be selected at the top of the draft. Barring a trade — which would be a tough manuever given how badly this team needs young players on inexpensive contracts — the Broncos won’t be able to get to the best among them. If the season ended today, Denver would have the 14th overall pick.
The team might slide up to the 10 to 12 range if Stidham slumps. But games against the Chargers and Raiders are each winnable, so it’s possible that pick lands around 15th. This means no chance to draft Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels may be gone by then as well.
There’s going to be some temptation to reach for someone high profile, but patience would behoove the Broncos. We’ve seen quarterbacks struggle amidst depleted rosters. While Denver isn’t nearly as bad as the Carolina Panthers, there’s a solid chance 2024 would be a real Bryce Young experience for someone selected in the middle of the first round.
Instead, there’s a rich tapestry of good-not-great quarterbacks who should he around on Day 2 and beyond. Michael Penix, Bo Nix, JJ McCarthy or Michael Pratt could slip to the second or third rounds and bring plenty of college experience to their pro games. Guys like Sam Hartman or Spencer Rattler could be low cost pickups to fill out the quarterback room and maybe outgrow their projections en route to a starting role.
That’s not ideal, but it’s sustainable. 2024 is a lost season thanks to the team’s lack of salary cap space. There’s no risk in taking a developmental quarterback, assuming Payton doesn’t throw him into the fire too early and breed bad habits.
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This is all in service of securing a valuable, top three draft pick for 2025. That’s the date circled on Payton’s calendar right now; his chance to use premium assets to rebuild the franchise in his image.
There’s a problem, of course. 2024’s quarterback draft class appears to be significantly stronger than the 2025 g