With the NFL preseason in full swing, Bet FTW is taking a dive into each division to preview how each team stacks up and separate the contenders from pretenders in order to select the best futures. This is the AFC East.
Let’s get this out the way now: the Buffalo Bills are my pick to win the Super Bowl. Now that that’s established, everything you read after this will fall into place.
I think Buffalo has a chance to put together the best record in football. And while I like the improvements in Miami and I think New England will remain competitive, I just don’t think the rest of this division stacks up to the other great teams in the AFC.
Odds from Tipico Sportsbook
Joshua Bessex/Getty Images
Buffalo Bills (-220)
Over/Under 11.5 wins? Over -140
Will they make the playoffs? Yes -549
AFC odds: +320 Super Bowl odds: +600
If all goes right, the Bills should easily win this division. They have the best quarterback by far, and the best defense. And both should be improved over last year’s 11-6 season, with additions like Von Miller, Shaq Lawson and Jamison Crowder. Not only am I’m hammering the over on 11.5 wins, but this team is my favorite to win the Super Bowl. So those incredibly short odds to make the playoffs aren’t even worth touching.
Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Miami Dolphins (+400)
Over/Under 8.5 wins? Over -140
Will they make the playoffs? No -170
AFC odds: +2000 Super Bowl odds: +4000
I think the Dolphins have a chance to be really good, but I also think really good in a tough AFC won’t be enough to make the playoffs. Unless Tua Tagovailoa morphs into the most accurate quarterback in the NFL, Miami will once again barely miss out on the playoffs. I’d bet their odds to miss the playoffs above anything else.
New England Patriots (+480)
Over/Under 8.5 wins? Under -105
Will they make the playoffs? No -190
AFC odds: +2000 Super Bowl odds: +4000
There simply aren’t enough wins to go around in the AFC, and if I’m to believe Buffalo and Miami are the standouts from this division, that means New England suffers. I have questions about how good this offense can be, and I also question if the defense can be as stout as it was a season ago after the departure of some of its best players. My favorite bet here is the win total under.
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
New York Jets (+2000)
Over/Under 5.5 wins? Under +130
Will they make the playoffs? No -1205
AFC odds: +7000 Super Bowl odds: +10000
Look, I like what the Jets are doing. Really. But until Zach Wilson takes a step forward, I don’t see more than five wins on their schedule. Maybe he takes that step this year, but I have to see it first. He only won three games as a rookie. Besides, the odds on New York’s under are lovely.
AP Photo/Adrian Kraus
Did I mention how much I like the Bills? Then, there should be no surprise that they dominate the rest of the bets I like from the AFC East. Because I think their odds to have the NFL’s best record are worth a sprinkle, that also gives Sean McDermott a good shot at winning Coach of the Year.
I’m not as high on Josh Allen as MVP, because I don’t think he’ll be required to accumulate as many yards as some of the other quarterbacks. However, his combination of passing and rushing touchdowns should give him a good shot at Offensive Player of the Year. Of the other teams, I love Breece Hall’s chances of grabbing Rookie of the Year.
- Bills have NFL’s best record +450
- Bills win Super Bowl +600
- Jets