Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree prediction, pick: Will champ add to legend status at UFC 307?

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 307 main event: Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree (ESPN+).

Alex Pereira UFC 307 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 11-2 MMA, 8-1 UFC
• Height: 6’4″ Age: 37 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 80″
• Last fight: TKO win over Jiri Prochazka (June 29, 2024)
• Camp: Teixeira MMA/Glover’s Garage (Danbury, Conn.)
• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ UFC light heavyweight champion
+ Former UFC middleweight champion
+ 5x Glory middleweight and light heavyweight titles
+ Pro kickboxing record: 33-7 (21 wins by KO)
+ Brazilian jiiu-jitsu black belt
+ 8 KO victories
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Knockout power
^ Superb proprioception and accuracy
+ Devastating left hook and right cross
^ Times splits and counters well
+ Dangerous knees and leg kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Underhooks, overhooks and separations
+ Serviceable grappling game
+/-1-0 against dedicated UFC-level southpaws

Khalil Rountree UFC 307 preview

Staple info:

• Record: 14-5 MMA, 9-5 UFC
• Height: 6’1″ Age: 34 Weight: 205 lbs. Reach: 76.5″
• Last fight: TKO win over Anthony Smith (Dec. 9, 2023)
• Camp: Syndicate MMA (Las Vegas)
• Stance/striking style: Southpaw/muay Thai
• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ “The Ultimate Fighter: Season 23” Finalist
+ Amateur MMA titles (at middleweight and light heavyweight)
+ 10 KO victories
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO Power
^ 3rd most knockdowns in UFC light heavyweight history
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
^ Shows pacing and improvements
+ Dangerous left hand and right hook
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Devastating leg kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Strikes off the breaks
+ Serviceable wrestling and grappling
^ Mainly focuses on defense
+ Ferocious ground striker

Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree point of interest: The cost of counters

The main event for UFC 307 features a lightweight heavyweight title fight between two men who are familiar with the cost of counters.

Although many will immediately point to the counter left hook, it is ultimately the proprioception of Alex Pereira that makes him so accurate and dangerous in all that he does.

Whether he’s hitting his opposition with surprising spin kicks or splitting right hands inside of the danger zone, Pereira demonstrates a preternatural instinct to find and hit targets in motion. This could also be why his defensive layers can seem lackadaisical at times, but the Brazilian does a decent job of playing off his lowered guard and purposefully slow prods in order to invite opponents into awkwardly angled counters.

And when Pereira is the one pushing opponents on the back foot and towards a barrier, he wields one of the more understated jabs in MMA.

Already submitted my #UFC287 breakdown for this week, but couldn’t help throw this video together after hearing @TeddyAtlasReal talk about the jabbing dynamic between Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya.

Tacked on George Foreman-Gullick to help illustrate his Pereira comparisons: pic.twitter.com/Clws9Re94N

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) April 4, 2023

Pereira’s kicks, though improved (particularly when being used for returns), also come with an awkward kicking gate in tow, almost as if he’s trying to stay planted for counter-hook attachments at all times.

When facing southpaws, Pereira will still target his opposition’s lead leg, but isn’t beyond attacking the rear extremity a la Sittichai Sangkhachot. Pereira will still utilize his lead hand effectively against lefties, showing a knack for finding a southpaw’s blindspot with either left hooks or crafty kicks.

Alex Pereira, who faces Jamahal Hill at #UFC300, has a limited sample against southpaws in both kickboxing & MMA.

Poatan will still jab the head & body as well as attack both legs in the open stance (targeting the rear Sittichai style), but leans more on countering traps in MMA: pic.twitter.com/XNfT5bUdLd

— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) April 11, 2024

Nevertheless, Pereira is not beyond eating classic southpaw kicks and counters, so he’ll need to respect what’s coming back at him on the feet.
Enter Khalil Rountree.

The closest thing that MMA has to the Batman character “Bane,” Rountree – despite also being a former middleweight – is one of the most imposing presences to ever step foot into the UFC’s octagon.

Two minutes of Khalil Rountree delivering violence to people #UFCVegas78 pic.twitter.com/luiu28ctKR

— caposa (@Grabaka_Hitman) August 10, 2023

Although Rountree made his name as a marauding knockout artist who ends fights quickly, the Syndicate MMA product has steadily sharpened his skills, focus and patience since taking the time to train and travel at top spots around the world.

From Rountree’s muay Thai training in Thailand to his earlier career experience at Black House MMA during the tail end of Anderson Silva’s title run, “The War Horse” brings more to the table than what his resume may present.

Now, under the care of head coach John Wood, Rountree demonstrates solid pacing improvements and much more confidence in his natural countering ability. Whether we are talking about classic southpaw counters like check hooks or left crosses, Rountree is hardwired to return with two to three strikes in tow (particularly when responding to kicks).

When working from a distance, Rountree has been a bit better about getting on his jab in recent outings. That said, the American’s kicks – both to the body and legs – remain his standout threat from range.

Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree breakdown: Potential grappling threats