- Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is leaving the Democratic Party and will register as an Independent.
- Sinema will avoid a primary challenge from the left now that she is an independent.
- But it could complicate Democrats ability to win the 2024 presidential election.
Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s defection from the Democratic Party on Friday effectively upped the ante on Arizona’s battleground status ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
Sinema said she will register as an independent, dampening the Democratic Party’s 51-49 control of the Senate after Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., won his reelection bid Tuesday.
Political experts said Sinema’s move complicates her party’s ability to hold onto to the seat, and control of the Senate, in 2024 — not to mention efforts to secure Arizona’s key electoral votes in that year’s presidential contest.
If Sinema runs for reelection and another Democrat runs for the Senate, it could split left-leaning voters, paving a path for a Republican to win the seat.
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“She has put (Senate Majority Leader Chuck) Schumer, D-N.Y., and the Democrats, in a really tight spot,” said Adam Hilton, an assistant professor of politics at Mount Holyoke College. “This is a shrewd move on her part.”
Sinema a thorn for Democrats
Before her surprising announcement, several Democrats had expressed their exasperation with Sinema.
Sinema, along with West Virginia Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin, blocked the party from changing filibuster rules and passing voting rights legislation — to the ire of the Democratic base.
The two senators were also instrumental in blocking the trillion dollar Build Back Better legislation that would have expanded Medicare, included funding for universal pre-kindergarten and initiated climate change moves.
Voting rights fails in Senate along with filibuster changes
Senate Democrats come up short on a last-ditch effort to change the filibuster rules in order to advance on voting rights.
Associated Press, USA TODAY
Some Democrats celebrated her defection after the announcement Friday. “Bye Felicia,” progressive Rep. Jamaal Bowman, D-N.Y., tweeted.
Yet other Democrats are proceeding cautiously.
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre called Sinema a “key partner” in a statement Friday.
“We understand that her decision to register as an independent in Arizona does not change the new Democratic majority control of the Senate,” said Jean-Pierre. “And we have every reason to expect that we will continue to work successfully with her.”
Senate surprise: Kyrsten Sinema leaves Democratic Party, registers as independent
It’s too early to tell if Sinema will cost President Joe Biden Arizona’s 11 electoral votes in 2024, said Alex Alvarez, executive director of Progress Arizona, a digital hub for Arizona Progressives. But he said it’s still possible for Democrats to win the Grand Canyon state.
“We’re going to continue to build on those victories in 2024, to make sure that the presidency remains in Democratic hands,” said Alvarez.
‘Red state with purple spots’
Unlike national Democrats, Arizonans aren’t surprised by Sinema’s departure from the party, said Stacy Pearson, co-founder of the Arizona-based political consulting firm Lumen Strategies.
“She never promised to move to the left,” Pearson said. “Should she get elected, she promised to govern for the majority of Arizonans. And the majority of Arizonans are not Democrats.”
Until President Joe Biden won Arizona by just 0.3% in 2020, no Democratic presidential candidate had won the state since Bill Clinton in the 1996 presidential election. Between 2008 and 2018, when Sinema and other Democrats won their races, Democratic candidates did not win any Arizona statewide races, at any level, either.
Sinema party switch fallout: What we know about the next Senate after Sinema’s announcement and the Ga. runoff
Since then, Democrats have picked up both U.S. Senate seats, most recently with Sen. Mark Kelly winning reelection this year, and several House seats. Democrat Katie Hobbs defeated Republican Kari Lake for the state’s governorship, as well. But that’s more a reflection of the state’s Republican candidates than its Democrats, Pearson said.
That doesn’t mean the state is turning blue — or even purple, said Paul Bentz, senior vice president at the Arizona political consulting group Highground, Inc.
“The fact of the matter is Arizona is not a purple state; it’s a red state with purple spots,” Bentz said. “It is more of a Dr. Seuss character than it is an actual solidified base. We’re a microcosm of the country.”
Georgia Senate runoff: Warnock win gives Democrats 51-seat Senate majority in 2022 midterms overtime battle
How will Democrats proceed in 2024?
Experts said that Sinema’s move puts the attention in the Senate squarely back on the maverick senator while putting Democrats on the de