How pro bettors are betting all six NFL wild-card playoff games this weekend

How pro bettors are betting all six NFL wild-card playoff games this weekend

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The 2023-24 NFL regular season is now complete, and an exciting playoffs awaits, starting with the wild-card weekend. The San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens clinched the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences, but we have six games to evaluate and find betting opportunities from Saturday to Monday.

For The Win spoke to Seamus Magee, a trader at BetMGM, about where the action has been got a few picks from bettors about wagers they like this weekend.

(Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports)

DraftKings Sportsbook betting splits: 70 percent of bets, 79 percent of money on Browns -2

Oddsmaker insight (Wed.): “We opened at Browns -2.5, we’re still at 2.5, and opened the total at 43.5, we’re now at 44.5. We’re pretty heavy on the Browns, with 80 percent of spread and money-line handle on Cleveland. That’ll probably come back down a bit when the public comes in later in the week.”

Pick: Joe Flacco OVER 269.5 passing yards (-115)

“In one of the most surprising developments of the NFL season, Flacco got up off his couch and proceeded to make Browns history in the month of December. He topped 300 passing yards in each of his last four starts, including a hefty 368 back in Week 16 against the same Texans team he faces on Saturday. Amari Cooper should be good to go for this one, and Flacco also has a mind meld with tight end David Njoku. The unlikely ride continues for Flacco, and he blows right by this line.”

— Jeff Ratcliffe, President of FTN Network

(AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

DraftKings Sportsbook betting splits: 55 percent of bets, 72 percent of money on Chiefs -4.5

Oddsmaker insight (Wed.): “We opened Chiefs -3.5, now up to -4.5. Total hasn’t moved; opened 44.5, down to 43.5 briefly, back up to 44.5. Weather won’t be as significant as Buffalo, just will be super cold. The wind and rain in Buffalo impacts the total more. We’re all Chiefs right now, about 80 percent of the money on the Chiefs at the moment.”

(Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports)

DraftKings Sportsbook betting splits: 55 percent of bets, 46 percent of money on Steelers +9.5

Oddsmaker insight (Wed.): “The total is the big one here. We opened 40.5, down to 35.5 now at 36. Spread opened -9.5, now at -10. On the money line, we’re heavy Bills; a little more money on Steelers +10 at the moment. We took at $50,000 bet on Steelers +10.”

Pick: Steelers +10

“I might get caught peeking if Mason Rudolph turns into a pumpkin. Najee Harris has been a different player the past month with some outside runs, though, and he’ll be playing against a defense that’s susceptible. I’m kind of in on Pittsburgh. I don’t think they win, but I’m in on Pittsburgh to cover. The total dropping that hard should’ve brought the spread a little closer.”

–Andy Molitor, director of content, Betsperts

(Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports)

DraftKings Sportsbook betting splits: 55 percent of bets, 51 percent of money on Cowboys -7

Oddsmaker insight (Wed.): “Spread opened 7.5 and stayed at 7.5, while total opened at 49.5 and went up to 50.5. Moneyline obviously all Cowboys, but about 50-50 on spread. More tickets on the Cowboys.”

Pick: Green Bay +7.5 at Dallas (-115, BetMGM)

“This line is simply too high against a Dallas team with an overinflated home record. The Cowboys finished the season with a 12-5 record, including a perfect 8-0 at home. Dallas was 6-2 ATS at home, but played an incredibly soft schedule of opponents. Four of those victories came against the Jets, Giants, Patriots and Commanders, who boast a combined record of 21-47 (44.6%). Two of their other matchups against Seattle and Detroit, were decided by a combined seven points, and there is a legitimate argument Dallas should have lost outright to Detroit in Week 17.

“Green Bay’s offense has actually surpassed Dallas, ranking sixth-overall per offensive DVOA. Over the second-half of the season, the Packers rank second-best in the NFL, trailing only the 49ers. Quarterback Jordan Love has a strong cadre of weapons and will be able to score on this Dallas defense. The Packers offense has been particularly explosive on the road, posting 25.3 points per game, third-most in the league. Our FTN Bets Model has the Packers +7.5 with a 5% edge, equating to a 58.4% chance of winning.

“I’m taking the Packers +7.5 points as a live road underdog at Dallas. Green Bay’s road losses this year have been by 1, 4, 2, 4, and 2 points.”

— Mike Randle, Chief Content Officer at FTN Network

Dallas Cowboys team total OVER 28

“One week of the Chicago Bears messing around on offense is enough for us to forget about how Joe Barry’s defense has looked the second half of the year? Jaire Alexander was injured in practice this week, which also doesn’t help. I like the Cowboys team total here, based on the number at 28 or 28.5. Dallas is averaging a ton of points at home and should be able to move the ball up and down the field, don’t have to rely on explosive plays. CeeDee Lamb should have 15 targets minimum.”

— Andy Molitor, director of content, Betsperts

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) following the victory against the Washington Commanders at SoFi Stadium

(Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)

DraftKings Sportsbook betting splits: 60 percent of bets, 76 percent of money on Rams +3

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