Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa backslid in Week 7. Now Patrick Mahomes has them in his sights.
The reigning MVP’s steady climb up the advanced stats rankings continued after a comfortable 14-point win over the Los Angeles Chargers Sunday. By leaning on Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, Mahomes proved he’s still elite — and the numbers back it up.
He vaulted into third place in this week’s rankings thanks to a 424-yard, four touchdown performance — the fifth 400-yard, four-plus touchdown game of his career to date. Ahead of him lie Purdy and Josh Allen, two quarterbacks who failed to win as road favorites last week but turned in performances that, at the very least, looked decent on the stat sheet despite missed opportunities. With Tagovailoa close behind, these are the four players advanced stats suggest are frontrunners for this year’s MVP race.
Let’s talk about those numbers. Expected points added (EPA) is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.
The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 33 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 112 snaps in seven weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:
via RBSDM.com
Top right hand corner is good. Bottom left corner is bad. Try splitting those passers into tiers and you get an imperfect seven-layer system that looks like this:
via RBSDM.com and the author
These rankings are sorted by a composite of adjusted EPA and CPOE to better understand who has brought the most — and the least — value to their teams across the small sample size. It’s not a full exploration of a player’s value, but it’s a viable starting point. Let’s take a closer look.
Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
1. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: 0.197 EPA+CPOE composite
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: 0.190
3. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: 0.187
4. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: 0.185
Purdy threw a pair of fourth quarter interceptions to doom the 49ers comeback hopes against the Minnesota Vikings. Even so, he regained the top spot by virtue of Tagovailoa’s -5.5 EPA performance on Sunday night against the Eagles. Allen missed a few big throws that could have won the day in Foxborough, but ultimately Buffalo’s failure came down to its inability to stop a Mac Jones two-minute drill which, woof.
AP Photo/Daniel Kucin Jr.
5. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: 0.123 EPA+CPOE composite
6. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: 0.121
7. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos: 0.121
Jackson turned on ludicrous mode to lead his offense to 315 yards … across its first four drives. He finished Week 7 with 22.8 EPA, which still feels low considering how handily he demolished a solid Lions defense. Hurts clearly still isn’t himself in a new Philly offense, which I dissected here. Wilson is not nearly as good as this number suggests and his stats are buoyed by big first half performances that decline significantly after halftime.
AP Photo/Abbie Parr
8. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: 0.109 EPA+CPOE composite
9. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: 0.109
10. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: 0.104
11. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: 0.103
12. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: 0.103
13. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0.094
Cousins came through in the clutch against a very good 49ers defense, which may not provide much of a future for him in Minnesota but should boost the value of his next contract. Goff’s run as a top five quarterback abruptly ended at the hands of the Ravens, who beat the Lions into a grimy paste. Herbert started the season hot and has now left us wondering whether 2023 will be yet another year of lost potential from him. Mayfield has cooled after a strong start but let’s be honest; him even being a top 20 passer this season is a revelation.
Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
14. Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders: 0.078 EPA+CPOE composite
15. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.071
16. CJ Stroud, Houston Texans: 0.070
17. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders: 0.065
Lawrence hasn’t quite made the leap we’d expected after last year’s playoff berth, but his Jags have won four straight games and taken control of the AFC South. Stroud looks like a le