While some fans were initially confused about the NBA’s In-Season Tournament, the league experiment is working like a charm.
Now that eight teams will advance to the quarterfinals, we have a more clear picture of who might become the first player to win the Most Valuable Player of the NBA Cup. While superstars like Nikola Jokic as well as Joel Embiid and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander were eliminated, other big names still remain in contention.
According to NBA.com, the award will be given “based on the players’ performance in both Group Play and the Knockout Rounds.”
In order to provide us with some context about how everyone fared during seeding games, however, we wanted to provide a trusted catch-all metric that contextualized player performance during group play.
As we mentioned before the season, we asked a basketball data scientist who works for an NBA team to tell us which was the best statistic using just box-score data. This individual recommended that we use Daily RAPM Estimate (DRE) by Kevin Ferrigan.
You can learn more about the metric via Nylon Calculus. But the shortened version is that it’s like Player Efficiency Rating (PER) but weights derived from RAPM (which you can learn more about here) instead of just arbitrary weights.
Attached to each player are their current odds as well as their percentile ranking in regressed DRE per 48 minutes during seeding games of the NBA’s In-Season Tournament.
For those who do not win the MVP, meanwhile, it’s worth noting that the league will also issue All-Tournament honors. Until then, however, this is how the odds are shaping up based on what we have seen so far.
All odds listed below are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
RELATED: Here is the official bracket for the first knockout round of the NBA In-Season Tournament
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
ODDS: +450
IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 18.2 percent
REGRESSED DRE/48 (Seeding Games): -1.4 (43rd percentile)
Even though he is currently considered the favorite to win the MVP of the NBA Cup, Boston’s Jayson Tatum didn’t actually play very well during his seeding games.
He averaged 21.8 ppg while shooting a lowly 7-of-33 (21.2 percent) on his 3-pointers. Tatum also recorded nearly as many turnovers (11) as he did assists (12) during these games. However, the Most Valuable Player will likely go to the best player on the best team. As of right now, per DraftKings, the Celtics (+300) are the favorites to win the tournament.
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
ODDS: +650
IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 13.3 percent
REGRESSED DRE/48 (Seeding Games): 4.5 (98th percentile)
LeBron James has won four NBA Finals MVP awards and four regular-season MVP awards. Even as the oldest player in the league, he’s a smart bet to become the first MVP winner of the NBA Cup as well.
The Lakers (+550) are currently considered the favorites to come out of the West, per DraftKings. They went undefeated during group play and James is a massive reason why. He averaged 25.0 ppg while shooting 14-of-24 (58.3 percent) on 3-pointers. James also added 8.0 rpg and 7.5 apg in four wins for the Lakers.
Sergio Estrada/USA TODAY Sports
ODDS: +650
IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 13.3 percent
REGRESSED DRE/48 (Seeding Games): 5.7 (99th percentile)
De’Aaron Fox was the first player to ever win The Jerry West Trophy awarded to the Kia NBA Clutch Player of the Year. If the Kings are able to make a run during their remaining matchups, Fox could become the first to also win the MVP of the NBA Cup.
During seeding games, Fox was the leading scorer (36.0 ppg) among all players remaining in the tournament. He also averaged 8.0 rebounds and 8.7 assists with just 1.7 turnovers per game during the seeding games.
Stacy Revere/Getty Images
ODDS: +650
IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 13.3 percent
REGRESSED DRE/48 (Seeding Games): 3.8 (97th percentile)
Aside from the Celtics, per DraftKings, the Bucks (+340) are the other favorite to win the NBA’s In-Season Tournament. If they do, the trade to acquire Damian Lillard is likely why.
His performances when the games are on the line will lead to memorable moments for voters, too. As the current leader in clutch scoring during the regular season, Lillard also leads all scorers during clutch minutes of the in-season tournament. He was 8-of-11 (72.7 percent) during these opportunities in seeding games.
Stacy Revere/Getty Images
ODDS: +700
IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 12.5 percent
REGRESSED DRE/48 (Seeding Games): 3.3 (96th percentile)
Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo is a two-time MVP and an NBA Finals MVP. He is another fascinating candidate to become the first NBA Cup MVP.
Antetokounmpo averaged 25.5 ppg while adding 8.8 rpg and 5.8 apg during group play. He was a bit turnover-prone (4.5 per game) but contributed well on the defensive end of the floor. While he also shot the ball efficiently, the biggest knock against his candidacy moving forward is likely the presence of Damian Lillard. Both players need to play well to win the tournament, but it is possible the guard takes home the trophy if the Bucks win it all.
Alex Goodlett/Getty Images
ODDS: +850
IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 10.5 percent
REGRESSED DRE/48 (Seeding Games): 5.7 (99th percentile)
Kevin Durant is a two-time NBA Finals MVP and a one-time regular season MVP recipient. He could add to that trophy collection with an MVP during the NBA Cup, too.
Durant shot comically well from beyond the arc during the seeding games, shooting 12-of-16 (75.0 percent) on 3-pointers during his three appearances. He averaged an absurdly impressive line of 35.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg and 7.7 apg for the Suns.
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
ODDS: +900
IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 10.0 percent
REGRESSED DRE/48 (Seeding Games): 1.1 (88th percentile)
Although the Celtics are considered most likely to win the NBA Cup, this team has enough star power that it’s hard to bet one which player would take home the MVP.
But for what it is worth: Brown outperformed Tatum during the seeding games, which apparently matters for the award. He averaged more points, assists, steals and blocks per game than Tatum. Meanwhile, Brown’s 3-point percentage was double what Tatum shot during group play. The question is if that continues during the knockout rounds, however, or if if flips.
Justin Ford/Getty Images
ODDS: +1000
IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 9.1 percent
REGRESSED DRE/48 (Seeding Games): 6.1 (100th percentile)
Given his odds, Phoenix’s Devin Booker is probably the most interesting bet of any player remaining in the tournament.
Effectively a point guard again, Booker averaged 30.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg and 8.3 apg for the Suns during group play. It’s also worth noting that Phoenix outscored opponents by 25.2 points per 100 possessions when Booker was on the court, which was the best among all players (minimum: 200 possessions) during group play.
Emilee Chinn/Getty Images
ODDS: +1300
IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 7.1 percent
REGRESSED DRE/48 (Seeding Games): 4.7 (98th percentile)
Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton was the breakout star during group play of the NBA’s In-Season Tournament. He has as real of a chance to win NBA Cup MVP of anyone remaining.
Haliburton averaged 28.5 ppg while shooting 21-of-45 (46.7 percent) on his 3-pointers. No player made more shots from beyond the arc during group play. He also led all players during seeding games with 13.5 apg and he only recorded 2.8 turnovers per game. He recorded a double-double in each of his matchups for the Pacers and all games ended in a victory.
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
ODDS: +1400
IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 6.7 percent
REGRESSED DRE/48 (Seeding Games): 4.5 (98th percentile)
If the Lakers win the NBA’s In-Season Tournament, LeBron James is the most likely to hear his name called as the MVP. But don’t count out his big man, Anthony Davis.
Davis was one of just five players to record a double-double in all four seeding games. He joins Haliburton as one of just two who accomplished as much and are still remaining in the tournament. He also had the second-most blocks (12) of any player during group play as well.
Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images
ODDS: +2000
IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 4.8 percent
REGRESSED DRE/48 (Seeding Games): 3.1 (96th percentile)
Sergio Estrada/USA TODAY Sports
ODDS: +2000
IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 4.8 percent
REGRESSED DRE/48 (Seeding Games): 1.4 (91st percentile)
Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports
ODDS: +2500
IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 3.8 percent
REGRESSED DRE/48 (Seeding Games): 2.3 (95th percentile)
Vincent Carchietta/USA TODAY Sports
ODDS: +2500
IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 3.8 percent
REGRESSED DRE/48 (Seeding Games): 3.0 (96th percentile)
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