March Madness odds are now bleeding into April, with the championship game set for Monday night. Long gone are pre-tourney favorites Houston – which missed an opportunity to play for a title in its hometown – and Alabama, along with all the college basketball bluebloods.
No Kansas. No Duke. No Kentucky. No UCLA. Heck, no Gonzaga, a perennial contender, as well. But UConn is alive and very well, and the Huskies certainly have a championship pedigree, with four national titles to their credit.
On the flip side is a San Diego State team, which is miles deeper than it’s ever been in an NCAA Tournament.
Let’s take a look at how bookmakers and bettors did on the Final Four and dive into Monday night’s championship matchup, too.
TITLE GAME ODDS
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 4 UConn (9: 20 p.m. ET, CBS)
Point spread: UConn -7.5 (UConn favored to win by more than 7.5 points, otherwise San Diego State covers)
Moneyline: UConn -345 favorite to win (bet $10 to win $12.90 total); San Diego State +250 underdog to win (bet $10 to win $35 total)
Total scoring over/under: 132.5 points scored by both teams combined
Better Late Than Never
It took until the third and final weekend of March Madness – until the calendar flipped to April, and on April Fool’s Day, no less – for bettors to finally notch a winning day vs. bookmakers. UConn entering the Final Four red-hot – and remaining that way Saturday night – allowed for such an outcome.
In the opening semifinal, San Diego State rallied from a 14-point second-half deficit, beating Florida Atlantic 72-71 on Lamont Butler’s buzzer-beating jumper. But the Aztecs were 2.5-point favorites, so they failed to cover.
However, Connecticut – a spread-covering machine in this tournament – made it all work out for favorite backers. The Huskies rolled past No. 5 seed Miami 72-59 as 5.5-point favorites.
“We basically broke even on San Diego State-FAU, and then we lost on Miami-UConn,” BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton said. “Our first losing day of the tournament was Saturday. They were pounding UConn, so we got nicked up a little bit on that.”
UConn is a perfect 5-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in the Big Dance. All five wins have been by double digits, with Saturday’s margin the smallest so far. And dating to late in the regular season, the Huskies are on an 11-1 SU/10-2 ATS spree.
The Sharp Side
Based on those stout UConn numbers, taking San Diego State on Monday night doesn’t seem terribly prudent. But that doesn’t necessarily mean jumping on the Huskies’ sled, either.
“It’s very hard to continue to bet against the Huskies,” avid college basketball bettor Andy Molitor said. “Wins are wins this time of year, but San Diego State has won each of its last two games by a single point, while UConn has been knocking teams out by margin, winning by a combined 64 points in the three games from the Sweet 16 on.”
Indeed, the Aztecs narrowly knocked out Creighton 57-56 in the Elite Eight, then notched the aforementioned nail-biter over FAU in the Final Four. UConn drubbed Arkansas 88-65 in the Sweet 16, then steamrolled Gonzaga 82-54 in the Elite Eight before taking out Miami.
“A bit of a theme has emerged, as well, with Gonzaga and Miami going through long stretches of offensive struggles, dooming them both,” Molitor said. “UConn’s defense, especially on the perimeter, just turns it into such a tough team to come back against. If San Diego State plays the first half as it did against FAU, this could be a pretty boring final to cap off an otherwise awesome tournament.”
Line movement seems to think that could be the case. UConn opened as low as -6/-6.5 at some shops Saturday night, and within literally minutes, the Huskies were bet up to -7.5.
“I think the number being steamed out towards the Huskies makes sense,” Molitor said. “And while there’s value on San Diego State, it’s just difficult to take it when there’s such a large distribution of results that have UConn winning by double digits. I won’t be excited to live bet the Aztecs or take them in the second half, either – though it worked vs. FAU – due to what we’ve seen UConn do with a lead and its defense.
“Which leads me back to what I’ll be betting: Under 132.5,” Molitor said, alluding to Monday night’s total. “Not mentioned yet: the San Diego State defensive efficiency numbers. After what the Aztecs have done so far, including a master class vs. Alabama, I think that will be what has a chance to keep them in this one. I’ll be looking forward to some long possessions that come up empty on both sides of the floor.”
Worth noting: Prior to the Over hitting in the FAU-San Diego State game, the Aztecs were on a 12-0 Under run, dating back to the regular season.
Public on UConn
Just like Saturday night, public/recreational bettors are already all over the Huskies. And that’s all but certain to keep up right until Monday’s 9: 20 p.m. ET tipoff.
“We’re already approaching a six-figure loss on UConn point spread,” Shelton said Sunday night of the position for BetMGM Nevada – the company’s situation at its sportsbooks up and down Las Vegas Boulevard. “Ticket count is approaching 2-1 and money 7-1 on UConn.”
However, thanks to all the favorites and big names long gone from this tournament, BetMGM Nevada – and plenty of other books in Vegas and nationwide – are in great shape in the March Madness championship odds market.
Even if the Huskies win the game Monday night, Shelton said the book will do well.
“San Diego State is our best-case scenario, but both teams are winners in the futures market, well into six figures,” Shelton said.
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
FAU didn’t get the win Saturday, blowing a 14-point lead over the last 15 minutes or so against San Diego State. But as bettors like to say: Good teams win, great teams cover. And the Owls, underdogs of 1.5 to 3 points over the course of the week, covered in the 72-71 loss.
That allowed a Caesars Sports customer to cash a $115,000 bet on FAU +3 (-115) for a $100,000 profit.
Another Caesars customer had $150,000 on Over 131.5 in the FAU-San Diego State game. After a 73-point first half – FAU led 40-33 – it was pretty likely that bet would cash. With four minutes remaining, the Over hit on a bucket that put the Owls up 67-65.
In the championship futures market, a couple big tickets remain alive at Caesars Sports:
- $25,000 on UConn +2000 (potential profit $500,000)
- $15,000 on San Diego State +950 (potential profit $142,500)
Gone, unfortunately, are the incredible December wagers from a Caesars customer in Illinois. The bettor had $400 across four plays on FAU to win the championship: three $100 bets at massive odds of +250000 and a fourth $100 play at +50000. Had the Owls finished their run, the customer would’ve won $800,000.
Here’s hoping that bettor was able to hedge in some form or fashion to lock in some profit.
As for tonight, I’ve got a +4500 championship ticket on San Diego State, so you know where my allegiance rests. Enjoy the final game of March Madness!
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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