Week 4 was a week of clarification.
The Dallas Cowboys reminded us that Mac Jones is not a serious NFL quarterback. The Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns were reminded their mediocre starters are a significant upgrade from the rookie passers on their benches. The Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears played a game that made fans of neither team happy.
But in the middle of this standard-issue Sunday shame was another round of reasons to believe. The Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Houston Texans all had fairly different expectations for 2023, but each franchise shined in its own way before opening the month of October with a victory.
Let’s talk about them. These are the four things I liked most about Week 4.
Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK
The Bills’ defense has ranked in the top six when it comes to yards allowed in four of the last five seasons. This season will almost certainly make it five of six.
The Bills’ front four makes this all possible.
the Bills only blitz 17.8 percent of the time (fourth-lowest in the NFL)
the Bills generate pressure on 30 percent of passing plays (fourth-highest in the NFL)
and that four-man rush adds Von Miller soon. good luck, AFC quarterbacks! pic.twitter.com/bJeXNGn3pK
— Christian D’Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 1, 2023
No team in the league is more proficient at generating chaos with less than the Bills. Buffalo hardly blitzes but generates pressure roughly one in three dropbacks. Thirteen percent of their passing plays end in sacks, the highest margin in the league.
Of the club’s 16 sacks, 14 have come from players that line up either at defensive tackle or end in the Bills’ 4-3. Linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard are only averaging about two blitzes per game (Bernard is responsible for the other two sacks on the Buffalo stat sheet). Comparatively, Buccaneers’ linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White blitz about twice as much.
Instead, Sean McDermott is content to keep his human-shaped missiles patrolling the middle of the field, where they’re allowing passer ratings in coverage of 38.0 (Bernard) and 28.0 (Milano). Throwing nothing but incompletions would give you a 39.6 rating.
This is how Buffalo can survive a season without Tre’Davious White or Christian Benford, both of whom left Week 4 with injuries (Benford returned). The Bills’ defense works because it creates pressure up front while retaining the ability to keep its safeties deep and floating seven men around the secondary (the run defense isn’t nearly this good. It’s not yet a problem, but it could be).
It’s not a secret, either. The Dolphins knew all about it Sunday and couldn’t do anything to stop it.
Tyreek Hill said the Bills played Cover 2 throughout the game and their corners “had no fear in their eyes because they knew they had help over the top.” pic.twitter.com/cpH5DRzKJt
— Marcel Louis-Jacques (@Marcel_LJ) October 1, 2023
“We’re trying to wake everybody up and make people talk,” lineman Ed Oliver, source of three sacks and seven quarterback hits so far told the media after Sunday’s win. “We want everybody to know that this defense is for real and we’ve got special guys on this defense.”
They looked special in Week 4, and that will insulate this team against the AFC’s toughest quarterbacks. It has them primed to survive a Josh Allen slump. Buffalo didn’t just take over the top spot in the AFC East by beating the Dolphins Sunday; the Bills are now the favorite to win the conference itself.
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
After four weeks, one rookie quarterback has risen above the rest of his class. CJ Stroud is averaging 303 passing yards per game four weeks into his NFL debut. He’s thrown 151 pass attempts without an interception. His processing is crisp and his ability to fit the ball into tight windows has been on full display through one month of pro ball.
NICO COLLINS IS JUST LIKE THAT pic.twitter.com/biTd2NYRKg
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) October 1, 2023
While his catchable pass rate was a middling 75 percent coming into Week 4, Stroud displayed composure and poise while spraying safe targets across the intermediate range. He completed nine of 13 throws between 10 and 19 yards downfield, pushing his completion rate up to 59 percent on such attempts and, importantly, getting the bulk of his work done over the middle as to maximize run-after-catch abilities. Houston’s 5.2 yards after catch ranked eighth-best among NFL offenses before Sunday.
8️⃣ with a 22-yard reception 🤘 pic.twitter.com/Mz0yutUwiC
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) October 1, 2023
This means there’s no easy way to cheat Stroud’s passing offense. He’s viable over the middle and has the arm strength to fire lasers to the sideline. He’s only attempting two deep balls per game, but completing half of them. He scrambles well enough to gain yards or extend plays; he’s been sacked 11 times this season but only hit 18 times — especially notable when you consider he’s faced the Steelers, Colts and Ravens, three teams with top 10 pass rushes to start the season.
The end result is a polished young quarterback with room to grow. After a rough Week 1 outing against Baltimore, he’s posted a positive expected points added (EPA) number every week since. In Weeks 3 and 4, his combined EPA is 28 points. This rookie quarterback is making his team roughly two touchdowns better each week in the midst of this tiny win streak.
This isn’t to shade the other two starters in Stroud’s draft class. Indianapolis’s Anthony Richardson and Carolina’s Bryce Young only have three interceptions between them in 175 attempts. Young’s been given little to work with in terms of targets and blocking and Richardson has been hurt, but both have cast visions of a fruitful future with their level of play.
It’s just not as fruitful as the future in Houston, even without a first round pick in 2024.
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When Mayfield balled out in Week 2, it could be dismissed. After all, it came on a day where Mike Evans provided more than half the team’s aerial yards. Moreover, it occured against the smoldering crater that was once the Chicago Bears.
Week 4 is tougher to deny. Mayfield stared down a New Orleans Saints defense that ranked sixth in overall defensive DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) through three weeks and carved it right the hell up.
The former first overall pick was 2022’s worst starting quarterback — a stat made more damning by the fact his cohort included Zach Wilson. His victory in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ quarterback battle appeared less related to his own skill than the fact the alternative was Kyle Trask. All signs pointed to a rebuild year for the Bucs and an opportunity to select Drake Maye or Caleb Williams at the top of next year’s draft.
Instead, Tampa Bay is 3-1 with their only loss com